{
 "nba_calibration": [
  {
   "bin": "10\u201320%",
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   "model_obs": 0.0,
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   "bin": "30\u201340%",
   "model_pred": 0.351,
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   "book_pred": 0.352,
   "book_obs": 0.326,
   "book_n": 8915
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   "bin": "40\u201350%",
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   "model_n": 10916,
   "book_pred": 0.453,
   "book_obs": 0.434,
   "book_n": 11817
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  {
   "bin": "50\u201360%",
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   "model_obs": 0.541,
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   "book_pred": 0.546,
   "book_obs": 0.541,
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  {
   "bin": "60\u201370%",
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   "model_obs": 0.641,
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   "book_pred": 0.648,
   "book_obs": 0.644,
   "book_n": 7530
  },
  {
   "bin": "70\u201380%",
   "model_pred": 0.707,
   "model_obs": 0.702,
   "model_n": 772,
   "book_pred": 0.703,
   "book_obs": 0.63,
   "book_n": 262
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  {
   "bin": "80\u201390%",
   "model_pred": null,
   "model_obs": null,
   "model_n": 0,
   "book_pred": null,
   "book_obs": null,
   "book_n": 0
  },
  {
   "bin": "90\u2013100%",
   "model_pred": null,
   "model_obs": null,
   "model_n": 0,
   "book_pred": null,
   "book_obs": null,
   "book_n": 0
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 ],
 "nba_ev_buckets": [
  [
   "4\u20135%",
   188,
   7.3
  ],
  [
   "5\u20136%",
   142,
   12.4
  ],
  [
   "6\u20138%",
   167,
   5.8
  ],
  [
   "8\u201312%",
   95,
   4.9
  ],
  [
   "12%+",
   25,
   0.4
  ]
 ],
 "nhl_seasons": [
  {
   "season": "2022-23",
   "games": 1310,
   "ll_model": 0.6543,
   "ll_market": 0.653,
   "bets": 467,
   "roi": 5.5
  },
  {
   "season": "2023-24",
   "games": 1309,
   "ll_model": 0.6589,
   "ll_market": 0.6558,
   "bets": 406,
   "roi": 1.6
  },
  {
   "season": "2024-25",
   "games": 1306,
   "ll_model": 0.6602,
   "ll_market": 0.6579,
   "bets": 415,
   "roi": 2.7
  },
  {
   "season": "2025-26",
   "games": 1308,
   "ll_model": 0.6798,
   "ll_market": 0.6821,
   "bets": 372,
   "roi": 10.8
  }
 ],
 "nhl_buckets": [
  [
   "3-4 pts",
   670,
   -2.2
  ],
  [
   "4-5 pts",
   544,
   -2.1
  ],
  [
   "5-6 pts",
   425,
   8.2
  ],
  [
   "6-7 pts",
   334,
   -5.7
  ],
  [
   "7-9 pts",
   449,
   8.8
  ],
  [
   "9-12 pts",
   310,
   0.1
  ],
  [
   "12+ pts",
   142,
   11.4
  ]
 ],
 "nhl_total": {
  "games": 5233,
  "bets": 1660,
  "staked": 2561,
  "units": 128.2,
  "roi": 5.0,
  "ci": [
   -0.6,
   10.6
  ],
  "max_drawdown": -40.1
 },
 "changelog": [
  {
   "date": "2026-10-20",
   "text": "Auspex Sports goes live: NHL moneylines and NBA player props, every pick posted before the game. The live record starts here; earlier test picks were cleared."
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-10-20",
   "text": "NBA props model rebuilt for live use and blended with the market price: +7.4% on 617 unseen 2025-26 bets at the best price, flat 1-unit stakes."
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-10-19",
   "text": "NBA spreads, totals and moneylines tested with neural nets, Bayesian models and Monte Carlo simulation. No edge after the vig, so they are not published."
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-10-17",
   "text": "NHL moneyline model goes into live testing, picks locked before the first puck drop and graded at the locked price."
  }
 ]
}