Stats

Charts and splits of the live record. Same picks and the same unit total as the record page, graded at the posted price. Updated Oct 26, 12:30 AM ET.

Since October 20, 2026 I have 115 wins and 75 losses, up 37.63 units, at the posted prices.

These numbers are the live record only. Older tests stay on the method page and are not added in here.

The live record starts October 20, 2026, so this is a short run. A row marked short sample has fewer than 30 graded picks. One or two results can flip a row that size.

115–75Won–lost

+37.63uUnits, 1% of a bankroll

+19.4%ROI at the posted price

47%Beat the close, in points, 189 picks

Units and ROI over time

Units won or lost after each graded pick, oldest first. ROI is units won divided by units staked, after the same picks. Both end on the totals above. The ROI line swings on the first picks, when a few bets are the whole sample. Read the right edge for the total. 190 graded picks, 194u staked, Oct 20, 2026 to Oct 25, 2026.

Cumulative units

Units won

Graded picks, oldest to newest

After 190 graded picks, +37.63u. ROI +19.4%.

Cumulative ROI

ROI

Graded picks, oldest to newest

ROI ends at +19.4%.

The same totals at the end of each day.
Date	Graded	Record	That day	Total	ROI
Oct 20, 2026	18	11–7	+5.24u	+5.24u	+27.6%
Oct 21, 2026	60	36–24	+9.67u	+14.91u	+18.9%
Oct 22, 2026	13	7–6	+3.07u	+17.98u	+18.9%
Oct 23, 2026	40	22–18	+2.04u	+20.02u	+14.8%
Oct 24, 2026	27	15–12	+2.21u	+22.23u	+13.7%
Oct 25, 2026	32	24–8	+15.40u	+37.63u	+19.4%

Every graded pick in this line (190)

Running total after each graded pick.
Pick	Date	Result	Units	Total	ROI
Payton Pritchard under 4.5 ast	Oct 20	Won	+0.97u	+0.97u	+97.1%
Payton Pritchard under 16.5 pts	Oct 20	Lost	−1.00u	−0.03u	−1.4%
Paul Reed under 1.5 ast	Oct 20	Lost	−1.00u	−1.03u	−34.3%
Paul Reed under 10.5 pts	Oct 20	Won	+0.79u	−0.24u	−5.9%
Paul Reed under 5.5 reb	Oct 20	Lost	−1.00u	−1.24u	−24.7%
Mitchell Robinson under 7.5 pts	Oct 20	Won	+0.76u	−0.48u	−8.0%
Mitchell Robinson under 7.5 reb	Oct 20	Won	+1.07u	+0.59u	+8.5%
NJD moneyline	Oct 20	Won	+0.86u	+1.45u	+18.1%
LAK moneyline	Oct 20	Won	+2.70u	+4.15u	+41.5%
LeBron James under 7.5 ast	Oct 20	Won	+1.00u	+5.15u	+46.8%
Karl-Anthony Towns under 4.5 ast	Oct 20	Won	+1.00u	+6.15u	+51.2%
Jalen Brunson under 27.5 pts	Oct 20	Won	+0.87u	+7.02u	+54.0%
VJ Edgecombe over 2.5 ast	Oct 20	Lost	−1.00u	+6.02u	+43.0%
Chet Holmgren over 1.5 ast	Oct 20	Won	+1.55u	+7.57u	+50.5%
Jared McCain under 2.5 reb	Oct 20	Won	+0.67u	+8.24u	+51.5%
Dylan Harper under 3.5 ast	Oct 20	Lost	−1.00u	+7.24u	+42.6%
Dylan Harper under 15.5 pts	Oct 20	Lost	−1.00u	+6.24u	+34.6%
Dylan Harper under 4.5 reb	Oct 20	Lost	−1.00u	+5.24u	+27.6%
Franz Wagner under 5.5 ast	Oct 21	Won	+0.70u	+5.93u	+29.7%
Tristan da Silva under 9.5 pts	Oct 21	Lost	−1.00u	+4.93u	+23.5%
Trae Young under 10.5 ast	Oct 21	Lost	−1.00u	+3.93u	+17.9%
Rudy Gobert under 11.5 reb	Oct 21	Lost	−1.00u	+2.93u	+12.8%
Davion Mitchell under 6.5 ast	Oct 21	Lost	−1.00u	+1.93u	+8.1%
LaMelo Ball under 7.5 ast	Oct 21	Won	+1.22u	+3.15u	+12.6%
LaMelo Ball under 20.5 pts	Oct 21	Lost	−1.00u	+2.15u	+8.3%
Pelle Larsson under 2.5 ast	Oct 21	Lost	−1.00u	+1.15u	+4.3%
Joan Beringer under 6.5 pts	Oct 21	Won	+0.94u	+2.09u	+7.5%
Joan Beringer under 4.5 reb	Oct 21	Lost	−1.00u	+1.09u	+3.8%
Klay Thompson under 2.5 reb	Oct 21	Won	+0.71u	+1.80u	+6.0%
Dennis Schroder under 5.5 ast	Oct 21	Lost	−1.00u	+0.80u	+2.6%
Grayson Allen under 14.5 pts	Oct 21	Lost	−1.00u	−0.20u	−0.6%
Day'Ron Sharpe under 2.5 ast	Oct 21	Lost	−1.00u	−1.20u	−3.6%
Day'Ron Sharpe under 10.5 pts	Oct 21	Won	+0.97u	−0.23u	−0.7%
Day'Ron Sharpe under 7.5 reb	Oct 21	Lost	−1.00u	−1.23u	−3.5%
Moussa Diabate under 8.5 reb	Oct 21	Won	+0.87u	−0.36u	−1.0%
Brandon Miller under 24.5 pts	Oct 21	Won	+0.95u	+0.60u	+1.6%
Keon Ellis under 7.5 pts	Oct 21	Won	+0.87u	+1.47u	+3.9%
Egor Demin under 3.5 ast	Oct 21	Won	+1.02u	+2.49u	+6.4%
Egor Demin under 12.5 pts	Oct 21	Won	+0.89u	+3.37u	+8.4%
Jalen Smith under 1.5 ast	Oct 21	Won	+0.83u	+4.20u	+10.3%
Jalen Smith under 11.5 pts	Oct 21	Lost	−1.00u	+3.20u	+7.6%
Jalen Smith under 7.5 reb	Oct 21	Lost	−1.00u	+2.20u	+5.1%
Ja'Kobe Walter under 7.5 pts	Oct 21	Lost	−1.00u	+1.20u	+2.7%
Josh Giddey under 8.5 ast	Oct 21	Won	+0.95u	+2.16u	+4.8%
Leonard Miller under 8.5 pts	Oct 21	Won	+0.99u	+3.15u	+6.8%
Leonard Miller under 4.5 reb	Oct 21	Lost	−1.00u	+2.15u	+4.6%
Collin Murray-Boyles under 10.5 pts	Oct 21	Won	+0.92u	+3.06u	+6.4%
Collin Murray-Boyles under 5.5 reb	Oct 21	Lost	−1.00u	+2.06u	+4.2%
Ty Jerome under 6.5 ast	Oct 21	Won	+1.05u	+3.11u	+6.2%
Ty Jerome under 20.5 pts	Oct 21	Lost	−1.00u	+2.11u	+4.1%
Jaxson Hayes under 7.5 pts	Oct 21	Won	+1.00u	+3.11u	+6.0%
Jaxson Hayes under 5.5 reb	Oct 21	Won	+0.95u	+4.07u	+7.7%
Keyonte George under 6.5 ast	Oct 21	Won	+0.83u	+4.90u	+9.1%
Zach Edey under 10.5 reb	Oct 21	Won	+0.83u	+5.73u	+10.4%
Isaiah Collier over 4.5 ast	Oct 21	Lost	−1.00u	+4.73u	+8.4%
Cedric Coward under 3.5 ast	Oct 21	Won	+0.72u	+5.45u	+9.6%
Yves Missi under 6.5 pts	Oct 21	Lost	−1.00u	+4.45u	+7.7%
Yves Missi under 7.5 reb	Oct 21	Lost	−1.00u	+3.45u	+5.8%
Daniel Gafford under 9.5 pts	Oct 21	Won	+1.04u	+4.49u	+7.5%
Daniel Gafford under 6.5 reb	Oct 21	Won	+1.08u	+5.57u	+9.1%
Alperen Sengun under 4.5 ast	Oct 21	Lost	−1.00u	+4.57u	+7.4%
Cooper Flagg under 4.5 ast	Oct 21	Won	+1.20u	+5.77u	+9.2%
Kyrie Irving under 4.5 ast	Oct 21	Won	+1.16u	+6.93u	+10.8%
Matisse Thybulle under 6.5 pts	Oct 21	Won	+0.77u	+7.70u	+11.8%
Gui Santos under 12.5 pts	Oct 21	Won	+0.88u	+8.58u	+13.0%
Gui Santos under 5.5 reb	Oct 21	Won	+0.91u	+9.49u	+14.2%
Robert Williams III under 7.5 pts	Oct 21	Won	+0.95u	+10.44u	+15.3%
Robert Williams III under 8.5 reb	Oct 21	Lost	−1.00u	+9.44u	+13.7%
Jalen Green under 3.5 ast	Oct 21	Won	+0.97u	+10.41u	+14.9%
Donovan Clingan under 11.5 reb	Oct 21	Won	+0.89u	+11.29u	+15.9%
Khaman Maluach under 8.5 pts	Oct 21	Won	+0.91u	+12.20u	+16.9%
Khaman Maluach under 7.5 reb	Oct 21	Won	+0.98u	+13.18u	+18.1%
Derrick Jones Jr. under 12.5 pts	Oct 21	Won	+0.87u	+14.05u	+19.0%
Rui Hachimura under 19.5 pts	Oct 21	Won	+0.83u	+14.88u	+19.8%
Rui Hachimura under 5.5 reb	Oct 21	Lost	−1.00u	+13.88u	+18.3%
Darius Garland under 7.5 ast	Oct 21	Won	+1.12u	+15.00u	+19.5%
Isaiah Jackson under 10.5 pts	Oct 21	Lost	−1.00u	+14.00u	+17.9%
Isaiah Jackson under 7.5 reb	Oct 21	Won	+0.91u	+14.91u	+18.9%
NYR moneyline	Oct 22	Lost	−2.00u	+12.91u	+15.9%
PIT moneyline	Oct 22	Won	+1.87u	+14.78u	+17.8%
CGY moneyline	Oct 22	Won	+3.50u	+18.28u	+21.5%
UTA moneyline	Oct 22	Lost	−1.00u	+17.28u	+20.1%
Peyton Watson under 13.5 pts	Oct 22	Won	+0.89u	+18.17u	+20.9%
VJ Edgecombe over 2.5 ast	Oct 22	Won	+1.17u	+19.34u	+22.0%
Alex Caruso under 6.5 pts	Oct 22	Lost	−1.00u	+18.34u	+20.6%
Aaron Gordon under 2.5 ast	Oct 22	Won	+0.89u	+19.22u	+21.4%
Aaron Gordon under 14.5 pts	Oct 22	Lost	−1.00u	+18.22u	+20.0%
Aaron Gordon under 5.5 reb	Oct 22	Lost	−1.00u	+17.22u	+18.7%
DeMar DeRozan over 2.5 ast	Oct 22	Lost	−1.00u	+16.22u	+17.4%
Isaiah Hartenstein under 8.5 pts	Oct 22	Won	+0.89u	+17.11u	+18.2%
Jared McCain under 10.5 pts	Oct 22	Won	+0.87u	+17.98u	+18.9%
Norman Powell under 20.5 pts	Oct 23	Lost	−1.00u	+16.98u	+17.7%
Tyler Herro under 22.5 pts	Oct 23	Lost	−1.00u	+15.98u	+16.5%
Jalen Smith under 12.5 pts	Oct 23	Lost	−1.00u	+14.98u	+15.3%
Jalen Smith under 8.5 reb	Oct 23	Lost	−1.00u	+13.98u	+14.1%
Josh Giddey under 9.5 ast	Oct 23	Won	+0.95u	+14.93u	+14.9%
Mikal Bridges under 2.5 ast	Oct 23	Lost	−1.00u	+13.93u	+13.8%
Mikal Bridges under 11.5 pts	Oct 23	Won	+1.05u	+14.98u	+14.7%
Dennis Schroder under 6.5 ast	Oct 23	Won	+0.69u	+15.68u	+15.2%
Dennis Schroder under 13.5 pts	Oct 23	Won	+1.02u	+16.70u	+16.1%
Naz Reid under 3.5 ast	Oct 23	Won	+0.79u	+17.48u	+16.6%
Brandon Miller under 25.5 pts	Oct 23	Won	+0.91u	+18.39u	+17.4%
Ivica Zubac under 2.5 ast	Oct 23	Won	+0.71u	+19.11u	+17.9%
Ivica Zubac under 16.5 pts	Oct 23	Won	+0.79u	+19.89u	+18.4%
Ivica Zubac under 11.5 reb	Oct 23	Won	+1.05u	+20.94u	+19.2%
Obi Toppin under 4.5 reb	Oct 23	Won	+0.95u	+21.89u	+19.9%
Aaron Nesmith under 12.5 pts	Oct 23	Won	+0.88u	+22.77u	+20.5%
Tyrese Haliburton under 9.5 ast	Oct 23	Won	+0.95u	+23.72u	+21.2%
Max Christie under 2.5 ast	Oct 23	Lost	−1.00u	+22.72u	+20.1%
LaMelo Ball under 7.5 ast	Oct 23	Won	+0.97u	+23.69u	+20.8%
Franz Wagner under 4.5 ast	Oct 23	Lost	−1.00u	+22.69u	+19.7%
Trae Young under 9.5 ast	Oct 23	Lost	−1.00u	+21.69u	+18.7%
Deandre Ayton over 6.5 pts	Oct 23	Lost	−1.00u	+20.69u	+17.7%
Immanuel Quickley under 16.5 pts	Oct 23	Won	+0.87u	+21.56u	+18.3%
Cade Cunningham under 24.5 pts	Oct 23	Won	+0.92u	+22.48u	+18.9%
Daniss Jenkins over 2.5 ast	Oct 23	Won	+0.64u	+23.12u	+19.3%
Kevin Durant over 3.5 ast	Oct 23	Won	+0.91u	+24.03u	+19.9%
Dylan Harper under 16.5 pts	Oct 23	Lost	−1.00u	+23.03u	+18.9%
Dylan Harper under 4.5 reb	Oct 23	Won	+1.24u	+24.27u	+19.7%
Keyonte George under 6.5 ast	Oct 23	Lost	−1.00u	+23.27u	+18.8%
Jeremiah Fears over 3.5 ast	Oct 23	Lost	−1.00u	+22.27u	+17.8%
Ty Jerome under 6.5 ast	Oct 23	Won	+0.92u	+23.19u	+18.4%
Ty Jerome under 21.5 pts	Oct 23	Lost	−1.00u	+22.19u	+17.5%
Cam Spencer over 3.5 ast	Oct 23	Lost	−1.00u	+21.19u	+16.6%
Rui Hachimura under 18.5 pts	Oct 23	Won	+0.83u	+22.02u	+17.1%
Darius Garland under 24.5 pts	Oct 23	Lost	−1.00u	+21.02u	+16.2%
Walker Kessler under 13.5 pts	Oct 23	Lost	−1.00u	+20.02u	+15.3%
Zach LaVine under 19.5 pts	Oct 23	Lost	−1.00u	+19.02u	+14.4%
Domantas Sabonis under 6.5 ast	Oct 23	Lost	−1.00u	+18.02u	+13.5%
Ja Morant over 5.5 ast	Oct 23	Won	+0.71u	+18.74u	+14.0%
Deni Avdija over 5.5 ast	Oct 23	Won	+1.28u	+20.02u	+14.8%
PIT moneyline	Oct 24	Won	+0.72u	+20.73u	+15.2%
WSH moneyline	Oct 24	Won	+0.82u	+21.55u	+15.7%
Dennis Schroder under 5.5 ast	Oct 24	Won	+1.15u	+22.70u	+16.5%
Dennis Schroder under 14.5 pts	Oct 24	Lost	−1.00u	+21.70u	+15.6%
Davion Mitchell under 6.5 ast	Oct 24	Lost	−1.00u	+20.70u	+14.8%
Naz Reid under 17.5 pts	Oct 24	Lost	−1.00u	+19.70u	+14.0%
Day'Ron Sharpe under 2.5 ast	Oct 24	Won	+1.30u	+21.00u	+14.8%
Day'Ron Sharpe under 8.5 reb	Oct 24	Won	+1.12u	+22.12u	+15.5%
Keon Ellis under 2.5 ast	Oct 24	Won	+0.62u	+22.74u	+15.8%
Egor Demin under 11.5 pts	Oct 24	Lost	−1.00u	+21.74u	+15.0%
Jaylen Brown over 4.5 ast	Oct 24	Won	+1.08u	+22.82u	+15.6%
VJ Edgecombe over 3.5 ast	Oct 24	Lost	−1.00u	+21.82u	+14.8%
Trae Young under 10.5 ast	Oct 24	Won	+1.00u	+22.82u	+15.4%
Trae Young under 21.5 pts	Oct 24	Lost	−1.00u	+21.82u	+14.6%
Jalen Smith under 13.5 pts	Oct 24	Lost	−1.00u	+20.82u	+13.9%
Anthony Davis under 23.5 pts	Oct 24	Won	+0.95u	+21.77u	+14.4%
Max Christie under 2.5 ast	Oct 24	Won	+0.69u	+22.47u	+14.8%
Max Christie under 3.5 reb	Oct 24	Lost	−1.00u	+21.47u	+14.0%
Julian Champagnie under 10.5 pts	Oct 24	Lost	−1.00u	+20.47u	+13.3%
Dylan Harper under 17.5 pts	Oct 24	Lost	−1.00u	+19.47u	+12.6%
Victor Wembanyama under 27.5 pts	Oct 24	Won	+0.89u	+20.35u	+13.0%
Zaccharie Risacher under 11.5 pts	Oct 24	Won	+1.04u	+21.39u	+13.6%
Nikola Jokic under 27.5 pts	Oct 24	Lost	−1.00u	+20.39u	+12.9%
Zion Williamson under 2.5 ast	Oct 24	Won	+1.25u	+21.64u	+13.6%
Jeremiah Fears over 2.5 ast	Oct 24	Lost	−1.00u	+20.64u	+12.9%
Khaman Maluach under 9.5 pts	Oct 24	Won	+0.80u	+21.44u	+13.3%
Khaman Maluach under 9.5 reb	Oct 24	Won	+0.79u	+22.23u	+13.7%
Quentin Grimes under 2.5 ast	Oct 25	Won	+1.28u	+23.51u	+14.4%
Walker Kessler under 15.5 pts	Oct 25	Won	+1.02u	+24.53u	+15.0%
Keyonte George under 6.5 ast	Oct 25	Lost	−1.00u	+23.53u	+14.3%
Ivica Zubac under 2.5 ast	Oct 25	Won	+0.63u	+24.15u	+14.6%
Ivica Zubac under 14.5 pts	Oct 25	Won	+1.02u	+25.17u	+15.1%
Tyrese Haliburton under 9.5 ast	Oct 25	Lost	−1.00u	+24.17u	+14.4%
Day'Ron Sharpe under 2.5 ast	Oct 25	Won	+1.28u	+25.45u	+15.1%
Day'Ron Sharpe under 10.5 pts	Oct 25	Lost	−1.00u	+24.45u	+14.4%
Egor Demin under 3.5 ast	Oct 25	Won	+0.93u	+25.38u	+14.8%
Egor Demin under 11.5 pts	Oct 25	Won	+0.87u	+26.25u	+15.3%
Josh Hart under 4.5 ast	Oct 25	Won	+1.07u	+27.32u	+15.8%
Mikal Bridges under 2.5 ast	Oct 25	Won	+1.30u	+28.62u	+16.4%
Mikal Bridges under 12.5 pts	Oct 25	Won	+0.83u	+29.45u	+16.8%
Wendell Carter Jr. under 2.5 ast	Oct 25	Won	+0.80u	+30.25u	+17.2%
Franz Wagner under 4.5 ast	Oct 25	Lost	−1.00u	+29.25u	+16.5%
Jase Richardson under 10.5 pts	Oct 25	Won	+0.89u	+30.13u	+16.9%
Immanuel Quickley under 16.5 pts	Oct 25	Lost	−1.00u	+29.13u	+16.3%
Scottie Barnes under 20.5 pts	Oct 25	Won	+0.87u	+30.00u	+16.7%
Collin Murray-Boyles under 10.5 pts	Oct 25	Won	+0.79u	+30.80u	+17.0%
Collin Murray-Boyles under 5.5 reb	Oct 25	Lost	−1.00u	+29.80u	+16.4%
Rui Hachimura under 16.5 pts	Oct 25	Won	+0.88u	+30.67u	+16.8%
Rui Hachimura under 5.5 reb	Oct 25	Won	+0.73u	+31.40u	+17.1%
Isaiah Hartenstein under 7.5 pts	Oct 25	Lost	−1.00u	+30.40u	+16.4%
Jared McCain under 10.5 pts	Oct 25	Won	+0.95u	+31.35u	+16.9%
Paul Reed under 2.5 ast	Oct 25	Won	+0.74u	+32.10u	+17.2%
Paul Reed under 14.5 pts	Oct 25	Won	+0.95u	+33.05u	+17.6%
Paul Reed under 9.5 reb	Oct 25	Won	+1.05u	+34.10u	+18.0%
Daniss Jenkins over 4.5 ast	Oct 25	Won	+1.28u	+35.38u	+18.6%
Zach LaVine under 2.5 ast	Oct 25	Lost	−1.00u	+34.38u	+18.0%
Domantas Sabonis under 6.5 ast	Oct 25	Won	+1.07u	+35.45u	+18.5%
Ty Jerome under 6.5 ast	Oct 25	Won	+0.83u	+36.28u	+18.8%
Cedric Coward under 2.5 ast	Oct 25	Won	+1.35u	+37.63u	+19.4%

Rolling win rate and ROI

Each point is a window of graded picks ending on that pick, oldest first. The first picks in a window are only the warm-up, so the line starts once the window is full. A window of 25 still moves on one or two results. Winning half of them is not the break-even: the price does that job, in the chart further down. 190 graded picks in this record.

Hit rate, last 25

Hit rate

Window ending on this pick

Last 25: 19–6, hit rate 76.0%.

ROI, last 25

ROI

Window ending on this pick

Last 25: ROI +48.7%, +12.18u.

ROI, last 50

ROI

Window ending on this pick

Last 50: ROI +29.8%, +14.89u.

Drawdown, distribution, streaks

Drawdown is how far the running total sat under its own high. The deepest drop in this record is −9.46u, at pick 34 on Oct 21. The total is back at its peak. A push ends a streak. Open picks are not in it.

−9.46uDeepest drop from a peak

11Longest win streak

4Longest loss streak

Under the peak

Units under peak

Graded picks, oldest to newest

Now 0.00u under the peak of +37.63u.

Where each pick landed

Count of graded picks in each unit bin. A 1 unit loss sits in the minus bin. A win at a short price is usually under 1 unit.

Graded picks by the units on that pick.
Bin	Picks	Units
−1.50u or worse	1	−2.00u
−1.49u to −0.01u	74	−74.00u
+0.01u to +1.00u	80	+68.58u
+1.01u or more	35	+45.05u

Recent results

Current run: 3 wins. Longest win streak 11. Longest loss streak 4. The strip is the last 36 graded results, oldest on the left.

By sport

NBA and NHL, graded at the posted price. The bar length compares the size of the unit total inside this table.

Graded picks by sport.
Sport	Graded	Record	Staked	Units	ROI
NBA	182	109–73	182u	+30.17u	+16.6%
NHLShort sample	8	6–2	12u	+7.46u	+62.2%

By market

Every NBA pick in this record is a player prop, and every NHL pick is a moneyline. That split matches the sport table, so it is not repeated. There are no game totals and no point spreads in the live record.

Graded picks by the stat on the card.
Market	Graded	Record	Staked	Units	ROI
Points	75	43–32	75u	+6.84u	+9.1%
Rebounds	33	18–15	33u	+1.80u	+5.4%
Assists	74	48–26	74u	+21.53u	+29.1%
MoneylineShort sample	8	6–2	12u	+7.46u	+62.2%

By tier

Tier is the label published with the pick. On graded picks, Pick and Bet are 1 unit each. Best bet is 2 units.

Graded picks by the published tier.
Tier	Graded	Record	Staked	Units	ROI
Pick	182	109–73	182u	+30.17u	+16.6%
BetShort sample	4	3–1	4u	+1.39u	+34.9%
Best betShort sample	4	3–1	8u	+6.07u	+75.9%

Side and home or away

Over and under are the side on a player prop. Home or away is the team on the pick: the player's team, or the NHL team on the moneyline.

Over and under

Graded player props by over or under.
Side	Graded	Record	Staked	Units	ROI
OverShort sample	16	8–8	16u	+0.62u	+3.9%
Under	166	101–65	166u	+29.54u	+17.8%

Home and away

Graded picks by whether the picked team was at home.
Venue	Graded	Record	Staked	Units	ROI
Home	93	53–40	95u	+12.19u	+12.8%
Away	97	62–35	99u	+25.44u	+25.7%

Team and opponent

The picked team, then the other team in that game. One week of games leaves almost every row under 30 picks. Read the flag before the units.

By team

Graded picks by the team on the pick, sorted by units.
Team	Graded	Record	Staked	Units	ROI
PacersShort sample	9	8–1	9u	+5.98u	+66.4%
NetsShort sample	14	10–4	14u	+5.86u	+41.9%
KnicksShort sample	7	6–1	7u	+5.12u	+73.1%
SunsShort sample	5	5–0	5u	+4.45u	+88.9%
PistonsShort sample	9	7–2	9u	+4.38u	+48.6%
MavericksShort sample	8	6–2	8u	+4.21u	+52.7%
FlamesShort sample	1	1–0	2u	+3.50u	+175.0%
ClippersShort sample	10	7–3	10u	+3.17u	+31.6%
ThunderShort sample	7	5–2	7u	+2.92u	+41.8%
Trail BlazersShort sample	5	4–1	5u	+2.83u	+56.6%
GrizzliesShort sample	9	6–3	9u	+2.70u	+30.0%
PenguinsShort sample	2	2–0	3u	+2.59u	+86.3%
HornetsShort sample	11	7–4	11u	+2.38u	+21.7%
LakersShort sample	4	3–1	4u	+2.07u	+51.7%
CelticsShort sample	4	3–1	4u	+1.80u	+45.0%
WarriorsShort sample	2	2–0	2u	+1.79u	+89.3%
76ersShort sample	5	3–2	5u	+1.25u	+25.0%
CavaliersShort sample	1	1–0	1u	+0.89u	+89.3%
DevilsShort sample	1	1–0	1u	+0.86u	+85.5%
CapitalsShort sample	1	1–0	1u	+0.82u	+82.0%
KingsShort sample	5	2–3	6u	+0.77u	+12.8%
TimberwolvesShort sample	6	3–3	6u	+0.13u	+2.1%
RocketsShort sample	2	1–1	2u	−0.09u	−4.5%
JazzShort sample	6	3–3	6u	−0.22u	−3.6%
RaptorsShort sample	8	4–4	8u	−0.55u	−6.9%
MagicShort sample	6	3–3	6u	−0.62u	−10.3%
BucksShort sample	1	0–1	1u	−1.00u	−100.0%
MammothShort sample	1	0–1	1u	−1.00u	−100.0%
RangersShort sample	1	0–1	2u	−2.00u	−100.0%
WizardsShort sample	6	2–4	6u	−2.05u	−34.1%
HeatShort sample	4	1–3	4u	−2.29u	−57.1%
PelicansShort sample	5	1–4	5u	−2.75u	−55.0%
NuggetsShort sample	5	1–4	5u	−3.12u	−62.3%
BullsShort sample	11	4–7	11u	−3.27u	−29.8%
SpursShort sample	8	2–6	8u	−3.88u	−48.4%

By opponent

Graded picks by the other team in the game, sorted by units.
Opponent	Graded	Record	Staked	Units	ROI
76ersShort sample	7	7–0	7u	+6.79u	+96.9%
KingsShort sample	10	8–2	10u	+5.90u	+59.0%
RocketsShort sample	6	5–1	6u	+4.72u	+78.7%
MagicShort sample	4	4–0	4u	+4.17u	+104.2%
SpursShort sample	6	5–1	6u	+3.86u	+64.3%
WildShort sample	1	1–0	2u	+3.50u	+175.0%
MavericksShort sample	10	7–3	10u	+3.22u	+32.2%
CavaliersShort sample	5	4–1	5u	+3.21u	+64.1%
HawksShort sample	6	5–1	6u	+3.11u	+51.8%
JazzShort sample	7	5–2	7u	+2.90u	+41.5%
CapitalsShort sample	1	1–0	2u	+2.70u	+135.0%
PanthersShort sample	1	1–0	2u	+1.87u	+93.5%
GrizzliesShort sample	6	4–2	6u	+1.86u	+30.9%
PistonsShort sample	4	3–1	4u	+1.80u	+45.0%
WarriorsShort sample	6	4–2	6u	+1.27u	+21.2%
NuggetsShort sample	5	3–2	5u	+1.01u	+20.1%
Trail BlazersShort sample	5	3–2	5u	+0.86u	+17.2%
AvalancheShort sample	1	1–0	1u	+0.86u	+85.5%
SunsShort sample	3	2–1	3u	+0.84u	+27.9%
SabresShort sample	1	1–0	1u	+0.82u	+82.0%
HornetsShort sample	7	4–3	7u	+0.75u	+10.7%
PredatorsShort sample	1	1–0	1u	+0.72u	+71.9%
KnicksShort sample	5	3–2	5u	+0.69u	+13.7%
LakersShort sample	5	3–2	5u	+0.62u	+12.4%
NetsShort sample	7	4–3	7u	+0.47u	+6.7%
WizardsShort sample	2	1–1	2u	−0.13u	−6.5%
HeatShort sample	10	5–5	10u	−0.14u	−1.4%
PacersShort sample	7	3–4	7u	−0.92u	−13.2%
KrakenShort sample	1	0–1	1u	−1.00u	−100.0%
ClippersShort sample	3	1–2	3u	−1.05u	−34.9%
BullsShort sample	7	3–4	7u	−1.13u	−16.2%
CelticsShort sample	5	2–3	5u	−1.16u	−23.1%
Maple LeafsShort sample	1	0–1	2u	−2.00u	−100.0%
PelicansShort sample	2	0–2	2u	−2.00u	−100.0%
RaptorsShort sample	8	3–5	8u	−2.23u	−27.8%
TimberwolvesShort sample	8	3–5	8u	−2.62u	−32.8%
BucksShort sample	7	2–5	7u	−2.97u	−42.4%
ThunderShort sample	9	3–6	9u	−3.51u	−39.0%

Day and start time

Day is the slate date on the pick. Start time is tip-off in Eastern Time, and only when the pick carries one. 8 graded picks have no start time, so they are left out of the time table. The live record is still one short run of days, so a weekday with a handful of games is a short sample. There is no monthly heatmap in a record this young.

By day of the week

Graded picks by the slate date's weekday.
Day	Graded	Record	Staked	Units	ROI
TuesdayShort sample	18	11–7	19u	+5.24u	+27.6%
Wednesday	60	36–24	60u	+9.67u	+16.1%
ThursdayShort sample	13	7–6	16u	+3.07u	+19.2%
Friday	40	22–18	40u	+2.04u	+5.1%
SaturdayShort sample	27	15–12	27u	+2.21u	+8.2%
Sunday	32	24–8	32u	+15.40u	+48.1%

By start time

Graded picks by tip-off, Eastern Time.
Start	Graded	Record	Staked	Units	ROI
Before 6 PM ETShort sample	15	7–8	15u	−1.16u	−7.7%
6 PM ETShort sample	11	6–5	11u	+0.87u	+7.9%
7 PM ET	78	50–28	78u	+18.64u	+23.9%
8 PM ETShort sample	27	17–10	27u	+6.00u	+22.2%
9 PM ETShort sample	24	11–13	24u	−1.49u	−6.2%
10 PM ET or laterShort sample	27	18–9	27u	+7.31u	+27.1%

By price

The posted price, in American odds. A minus price is a favorite. A plus price is an underdog. These bands use the price on the card, not the closing price. What −110 means.

Graded picks by the posted American price.
Price	Graded	Record	Staked	Units	ROI
−150 or shorterShort sample	6	4–2	6u	+0.55u	+9.2%
−149 to −110	82	51–31	83u	+10.05u	+12.1%
−109 to +110	70	41–29	71u	+12.59u	+17.7%
+111 to +150	30	17–13	31u	+9.40u	+30.3%
+151 or longerShort sample	2	2–0	3u	+5.05u	+168.3%

Hit rate against the price

Hit rate is wins divided by wins and losses. Pushes are left out of the rate. Break-even is the average of the posted prices in that band, as the win rate that would have won the stake back. It is the price on the card. It is not a model probability. The gap is hit rate minus that break-even, in percentage points. A band under 30 decided picks is a short sample.

Hit rate
Break-even at the posted price

Hit rate by posted price, next to the break-even rate implied by those prices.
Price	Decided	Hit rate	Break-even	Gap	Units
−150 or shorterShort sample	6	66.7%	61.4%	+5.3 pp	+0.55u
−149 to −110	82	62.2%	54.8%	+7.4 pp	+10.05u
−109 to +110	70	58.6%	50.1%	+8.4 pp	+12.59u
+111 to +150	30	56.7%	44.8%	+11.9 pp	+9.40u
+151 or longerShort sample	2	100.0%	37.8%	+62.2 pp	+5.05u

By book

The book on the card. NHL moneylines in this record are graded at the median price, so they sit on their own row.

Graded picks by the posted book.
Book	Graded	Record	Staked	Units	ROI
BetRivers	44	28–16	44u	+9.09u	+20.7%
BetMGM	43	26–17	43u	+7.51u	+17.5%
Median priceShort sample	8	6–2	12u	+7.46u	+62.2%
DraftKings	42	25–17	42u	+6.32u	+15.0%
FanDuel	37	21–16	37u	+5.45u	+14.7%
CaesarsShort sample	16	9–7	16u	+1.81u	+11.3%

Posted price and typical price

NBA picks that have both a result at the posted price and a result at the typical price. The typical price is the median across the tracked books at the same line. The two bars are those sums. 7 graded NBA picks are missing a typical price and are left out. This is not a second record, and it is not the headline total above.

Sum of units on 175 NBA picks, at the posted price and at the typical price.
Price	Picks	Units
Posted price	175	+29.57u
Typical price	175	+23.04u

Closing line over time

Beating the closing line is the best sign I have of a real edge, even on losing nights. One cent is one percentage point of implied probability. Positive means the locked price was longer than the closing median. The three figures are the published totals. The line is the average of the cents on each pick that has one, oldest first.

+1.83¢Average CLV, cents

86.9%Beat the close

183Picks with a closing price, 7 left out

7 graded picks have no cents figure, so they are left off the line. The line does not fill a cents figure in from the points value or from the price.

Average cents

Average CLV

Picks with a cents figure, oldest to newest

Average +1.83¢ after 183 picks with a cents figure.

Cents against the result

Graded picks that have a cents figure, grouped. The hit rate is how often that group won. The average cents on wins and on losses are the two figures under the heading. A group under 30 picks is a short sample. These are not per-pick probabilities.

+1.81¢Average cents on wins

+1.87¢Average cents on losses

183Graded picks with cents

Hit rate by closing-line value in cents. The count is graded picks in the band.
Cents	Picks	Hit rate	Units
NegativeShort sample	16	68.8%	+7.16u
0¢ to 1¢	49	55.1%	+4.69u
1¢ to 3¢	74	63.5%	+17.49u
3¢ or more	44	59.1%	+7.69u

Every pick on the cents line (183)

Closing-line value in cents, and the average through that pick.
Pick	Date	Result	This pick	Average
NJD moneyline	Oct 20	Won	−0.43¢	−0.43¢
LAK moneyline	Oct 20	Won	0.0¢	−0.21¢
LeBron James under 7.5 ast	Oct 20	Won	+4.75¢	+1.44¢
Karl-Anthony Towns under 4.5 ast	Oct 20	Won	+1.22¢	+1.39¢
Jalen Brunson under 27.5 pts	Oct 20	Won	+2.07¢	+1.52¢
VJ Edgecombe over 2.5 ast	Oct 20	Lost	+3.09¢	+1.78¢
Chet Holmgren over 1.5 ast	Oct 20	Won	+3.52¢	+2.03¢
Jared McCain under 2.5 reb	Oct 20	Won	+1.09¢	+1.91¢
Dylan Harper under 3.5 ast	Oct 20	Lost	+0.2¢	+1.72¢
Dylan Harper under 15.5 pts	Oct 20	Lost	+1.37¢	+1.69¢
Dylan Harper under 4.5 reb	Oct 20	Lost	0.0¢	+1.53¢
Franz Wagner under 5.5 ast	Oct 21	Won	+1.78¢	+1.55¢
Tristan da Silva under 9.5 pts	Oct 21	Lost	+2.38¢	+1.62¢
Trae Young under 10.5 ast	Oct 21	Lost	+1.57¢	+1.61¢
Rudy Gobert under 11.5 reb	Oct 21	Lost	+1.75¢	+1.62¢
Davion Mitchell under 6.5 ast	Oct 21	Lost	+0.84¢	+1.57¢
LaMelo Ball under 7.5 ast	Oct 21	Won	+2.57¢	+1.63¢
LaMelo Ball under 20.5 pts	Oct 21	Lost	0.0¢	+1.54¢
Pelle Larsson under 2.5 ast	Oct 21	Lost	+0.78¢	+1.5¢
Joan Beringer under 6.5 pts	Oct 21	Won	+1.14¢	+1.48¢
Joan Beringer under 4.5 reb	Oct 21	Lost	+1.23¢	+1.47¢
Klay Thompson under 2.5 reb	Oct 21	Won	+1.67¢	+1.48¢
Dennis Schroder under 5.5 ast	Oct 21	Lost	−0.68¢	+1.39¢
Grayson Allen under 14.5 pts	Oct 21	Lost	+10.15¢	+1.75¢
Day'Ron Sharpe under 2.5 ast	Oct 21	Lost	+0.8¢	+1.71¢
Day'Ron Sharpe under 10.5 pts	Oct 21	Won	+2.09¢	+1.73¢
Day'Ron Sharpe under 7.5 reb	Oct 21	Lost	+1.66¢	+1.73¢
Moussa Diabate under 8.5 reb	Oct 21	Won	+2.07¢	+1.74¢
Brandon Miller under 24.5 pts	Oct 21	Won	+2.7¢	+1.77¢
Keon Ellis under 7.5 pts	Oct 21	Won	+1.26¢	+1.75¢
Egor Demin under 3.5 ast	Oct 21	Won	+1.48¢	+1.75¢
Egor Demin under 12.5 pts	Oct 21	Won	+2.11¢	+1.76¢
Jalen Smith under 1.5 ast	Oct 21	Won	+3.08¢	+1.8¢
Jalen Smith under 11.5 pts	Oct 21	Lost	+1.95¢	+1.8¢
Jalen Smith under 7.5 reb	Oct 21	Lost	+2.43¢	+1.82¢
Ja'Kobe Walter under 7.5 pts	Oct 21	Lost	+2.44¢	+1.84¢
Josh Giddey under 8.5 ast	Oct 21	Won	+3.53¢	+1.88¢
Leonard Miller under 8.5 pts	Oct 21	Won	+0.49¢	+1.85¢
Leonard Miller under 4.5 reb	Oct 21	Lost	+2.15¢	+1.85¢
Collin Murray-Boyles under 10.5 pts	Oct 21	Won	+1.98¢	+1.86¢
Collin Murray-Boyles under 5.5 reb	Oct 21	Lost	+5.18¢	+1.94¢
Ty Jerome under 6.5 ast	Oct 21	Won	+3.14¢	+1.97¢
Ty Jerome under 20.5 pts	Oct 21	Lost	+0.21¢	+1.93¢
Jaxson Hayes under 7.5 pts	Oct 21	Won	+3.05¢	+1.95¢
Jaxson Hayes under 5.5 reb	Oct 21	Won	+0.24¢	+1.91¢
Keyonte George under 6.5 ast	Oct 21	Won	+3.26¢	+1.94¢
Zach Edey under 10.5 reb	Oct 21	Won	+2.35¢	+1.95¢
Isaiah Collier over 4.5 ast	Oct 21	Lost	+1.47¢	+1.94¢
Cedric Coward under 3.5 ast	Oct 21	Won	+3.67¢	+1.98¢
Yves Missi under 6.5 pts	Oct 21	Lost	+3.13¢	+2.0¢
Yves Missi under 7.5 reb	Oct 21	Lost	+0.54¢	+1.97¢
Daniel Gafford under 9.5 pts	Oct 21	Won	+2.2¢	+1.98¢
Daniel Gafford under 6.5 reb	Oct 21	Won	+1.18¢	+1.96¢
Alperen Sengun under 4.5 ast	Oct 21	Lost	+0.21¢	+1.93¢
Cooper Flagg under 4.5 ast	Oct 21	Won	+0.84¢	+1.91¢
Kyrie Irving under 4.5 ast	Oct 21	Won	+1.55¢	+1.9¢
Matisse Thybulle under 6.5 pts	Oct 21	Won	−1.77¢	+1.84¢
Gui Santos under 12.5 pts	Oct 21	Won	+0.43¢	+1.81¢
Gui Santos under 5.5 reb	Oct 21	Won	+6.47¢	+1.89¢
Robert Williams III under 7.5 pts	Oct 21	Won	−0.97¢	+1.84¢
Robert Williams III under 8.5 reb	Oct 21	Lost	−4.62¢	+1.74¢
Jalen Green under 3.5 ast	Oct 21	Won	+0.95¢	+1.73¢
Donovan Clingan under 11.5 reb	Oct 21	Won	+1.49¢	+1.72¢
Khaman Maluach under 8.5 pts	Oct 21	Won	+2.16¢	+1.73¢
Khaman Maluach under 7.5 reb	Oct 21	Won	−0.5¢	+1.69¢
Derrick Jones Jr. under 12.5 pts	Oct 21	Won	+2.46¢	+1.71¢
Rui Hachimura under 19.5 pts	Oct 21	Won	+0.8¢	+1.69¢
Rui Hachimura under 5.5 reb	Oct 21	Lost	+1.23¢	+1.69¢
Darius Garland under 7.5 ast	Oct 21	Won	+0.45¢	+1.67¢
Isaiah Jackson under 10.5 pts	Oct 21	Lost	+0.66¢	+1.65¢
Isaiah Jackson under 7.5 reb	Oct 21	Won	−0.23¢	+1.63¢
NYR moneyline	Oct 22	Lost	0.0¢	+1.6¢
PIT moneyline	Oct 22	Won	+0.23¢	+1.59¢
CGY moneyline	Oct 22	Won	−0.13¢	+1.56¢
UTA moneyline	Oct 22	Lost	+1.04¢	+1.56¢
Peyton Watson under 13.5 pts	Oct 22	Won	+2.73¢	+1.57¢
VJ Edgecombe over 2.5 ast	Oct 22	Won	+0.87¢	+1.56¢
Alex Caruso under 6.5 pts	Oct 22	Lost	+0.98¢	+1.55¢
Aaron Gordon under 2.5 ast	Oct 22	Won	+3.84¢	+1.58¢
Aaron Gordon under 14.5 pts	Oct 22	Lost	+3.7¢	+1.61¢
Aaron Gordon under 5.5 reb	Oct 22	Lost	+3.09¢	+1.63¢
DeMar DeRozan over 2.5 ast	Oct 22	Lost	+5.07¢	+1.67¢
Isaiah Hartenstein under 8.5 pts	Oct 22	Won	+1.49¢	+1.67¢
Jared McCain under 10.5 pts	Oct 22	Won	+0.43¢	+1.65¢
Norman Powell under 20.5 pts	Oct 23	Lost	+2.99¢	+1.67¢
Tyler Herro under 22.5 pts	Oct 23	Lost	+2.99¢	+1.68¢
Jalen Smith under 12.5 pts	Oct 23	Lost	+0.96¢	+1.68¢
Jalen Smith under 8.5 reb	Oct 23	Lost	+0.37¢	+1.66¢
Josh Giddey under 9.5 ast	Oct 23	Won	+3.12¢	+1.68¢
Mikal Bridges under 2.5 ast	Oct 23	Lost	+1.46¢	+1.67¢
Mikal Bridges under 11.5 pts	Oct 23	Won	+0.97¢	+1.67¢
Dennis Schroder under 6.5 ast	Oct 23	Won	+0.66¢	+1.66¢
Dennis Schroder under 13.5 pts	Oct 23	Won	+3.1¢	+1.67¢
Naz Reid under 3.5 ast	Oct 23	Won	+0.76¢	+1.66¢
Brandon Miller under 25.5 pts	Oct 23	Won	0.0¢	+1.64¢
Ivica Zubac under 2.5 ast	Oct 23	Won	+3.64¢	+1.67¢
Ivica Zubac under 16.5 pts	Oct 23	Won	−2.24¢	+1.63¢
Ivica Zubac under 11.5 reb	Oct 23	Won	+4.71¢	+1.66¢
Obi Toppin under 4.5 reb	Oct 23	Won	+4.73¢	+1.69¢
Aaron Nesmith under 12.5 pts	Oct 23	Won	+0.22¢	+1.67¢
Tyrese Haliburton under 9.5 ast	Oct 23	Won	+4.34¢	+1.7¢
Max Christie under 2.5 ast	Oct 23	Lost	+1.51¢	+1.7¢
LaMelo Ball under 7.5 ast	Oct 23	Won	+7.24¢	+1.75¢
Franz Wagner under 4.5 ast	Oct 23	Lost	+0.21¢	+1.74¢
Trae Young under 9.5 ast	Oct 23	Lost	+2.95¢	+1.75¢
Deandre Ayton over 6.5 pts	Oct 23	Lost	+3.6¢	+1.77¢
Immanuel Quickley under 16.5 pts	Oct 23	Won	+1.26¢	+1.76¢
Cade Cunningham under 24.5 pts	Oct 23	Won	+1.34¢	+1.76¢
Daniss Jenkins over 2.5 ast	Oct 23	Won	+0.15¢	+1.74¢
Kevin Durant over 3.5 ast	Oct 23	Won	+4.52¢	+1.77¢
Dylan Harper under 16.5 pts	Oct 23	Lost	+2.46¢	+1.77¢
Dylan Harper under 4.5 reb	Oct 23	Won	+2.31¢	+1.78¢
Keyonte George under 6.5 ast	Oct 23	Lost	+2.27¢	+1.78¢
Jeremiah Fears over 3.5 ast	Oct 23	Lost	+2.95¢	+1.79¢
Ty Jerome under 6.5 ast	Oct 23	Won	−0.23¢	+1.78¢
Ty Jerome under 21.5 pts	Oct 23	Lost	+1.32¢	+1.77¢
Cam Spencer over 3.5 ast	Oct 23	Lost	+3.69¢	+1.79¢
Rui Hachimura under 18.5 pts	Oct 23	Won	+0.81¢	+1.78¢
Darius Garland under 24.5 pts	Oct 23	Lost	+0.8¢	+1.77¢
Walker Kessler under 13.5 pts	Oct 23	Lost	+3.74¢	+1.79¢
Zach LaVine under 19.5 pts	Oct 23	Lost	+0.45¢	+1.78¢
Domantas Sabonis under 6.5 ast	Oct 23	Lost	+1.32¢	+1.77¢
Ja Morant over 5.5 ast	Oct 23	Won	+0.34¢	+1.76¢
Deni Avdija over 5.5 ast	Oct 23	Won	+2.01¢	+1.76¢
PIT moneyline	Oct 24	Won	−2.6¢	+1.73¢
WSH moneyline	Oct 24	Won	−0.41¢	+1.71¢
Dennis Schroder under 5.5 ast	Oct 24	Won	+3.49¢	+1.73¢
Dennis Schroder under 14.5 pts	Oct 24	Lost	0.0¢	+1.71¢
Davion Mitchell under 6.5 ast	Oct 24	Lost	+4.19¢	+1.73¢
Naz Reid under 17.5 pts	Oct 24	Lost	+1.06¢	+1.73¢
Day'Ron Sharpe under 2.5 ast	Oct 24	Won	+0.77¢	+1.72¢
Day'Ron Sharpe under 8.5 reb	Oct 24	Won	+2.58¢	+1.73¢
Keon Ellis under 2.5 ast	Oct 24	Won	+2.2¢	+1.73¢
Egor Demin under 11.5 pts	Oct 24	Lost	+0.41¢	+1.72¢
Jaylen Brown over 4.5 ast	Oct 24	Won	+4.53¢	+1.74¢
VJ Edgecombe over 3.5 ast	Oct 24	Lost	+7.71¢	+1.78¢
Trae Young under 10.5 ast	Oct 24	Won	0.0¢	+1.77¢
Trae Young under 21.5 pts	Oct 24	Lost	+3.1¢	+1.78¢
Jalen Smith under 13.5 pts	Oct 24	Lost	+0.62¢	+1.77¢
Anthony Davis under 23.5 pts	Oct 24	Won	+0.93¢	+1.77¢
Max Christie under 2.5 ast	Oct 24	Won	+1.77¢	+1.77¢
Max Christie under 3.5 reb	Oct 24	Lost	+2.99¢	+1.77¢
Julian Champagnie under 10.5 pts	Oct 24	Lost	−0.19¢	+1.76¢
Dylan Harper under 17.5 pts	Oct 24	Lost	+0.21¢	+1.75¢
Victor Wembanyama under 27.5 pts	Oct 24	Won	+1.7¢	+1.75¢
Zaccharie Risacher under 11.5 pts	Oct 24	Won	+2.2¢	+1.75¢
Nikola Jokic under 27.5 pts	Oct 24	Lost	+3.74¢	+1.77¢
Zion Williamson under 2.5 ast	Oct 24	Won	+1.43¢	+1.76¢
Jeremiah Fears over 2.5 ast	Oct 24	Lost	+3.6¢	+1.78¢
Khaman Maluach under 9.5 pts	Oct 24	Won	0.0¢	+1.76¢
Khaman Maluach under 9.5 reb	Oct 24	Won	+0.95¢	+1.76¢
Quentin Grimes under 2.5 ast	Oct 25	Won	+2.44¢	+1.76¢
Walker Kessler under 15.5 pts	Oct 25	Won	+3.1¢	+1.77¢
Keyonte George under 6.5 ast	Oct 25	Lost	+3.06¢	+1.78¢
Ivica Zubac under 2.5 ast	Oct 25	Won	+1.29¢	+1.78¢
Ivica Zubac under 14.5 pts	Oct 25	Won	+1.48¢	+1.78¢
Tyrese Haliburton under 9.5 ast	Oct 25	Lost	+2.73¢	+1.78¢
Day'Ron Sharpe under 2.5 ast	Oct 25	Won	+2.44¢	+1.79¢
Day'Ron Sharpe under 10.5 pts	Oct 25	Lost	+3.23¢	+1.79¢
Egor Demin under 3.5 ast	Oct 25	Won	+1.57¢	+1.79¢
Egor Demin under 11.5 pts	Oct 25	Won	+1.26¢	+1.79¢
Josh Hart under 4.5 ast	Oct 25	Won	+3.15¢	+1.8¢
Mikal Bridges under 2.5 ast	Oct 25	Won	+3.25¢	+1.81¢
Mikal Bridges under 12.5 pts	Oct 25	Won	+1.77¢	+1.81¢
Wendell Carter Jr. under 2.5 ast	Oct 25	Won	+5.98¢	+1.83¢
Franz Wagner under 4.5 ast	Oct 25	Lost	+0.89¢	+1.83¢
Jase Richardson under 10.5 pts	Oct 25	Won	+0.65¢	+1.82¢
Immanuel Quickley under 16.5 pts	Oct 25	Lost	−0.43¢	+1.81¢
Scottie Barnes under 20.5 pts	Oct 25	Won	+0.64¢	+1.8¢
Collin Murray-Boyles under 10.5 pts	Oct 25	Won	+2.05¢	+1.8¢
Collin Murray-Boyles under 5.5 reb	Oct 25	Lost	−0.94¢	+1.79¢
Rui Hachimura under 16.5 pts	Oct 25	Won	+1.48¢	+1.78¢
Rui Hachimura under 5.5 reb	Oct 25	Won	+2.51¢	+1.79¢
Isaiah Hartenstein under 7.5 pts	Oct 25	Lost	+2.88¢	+1.79¢
Jared McCain under 10.5 pts	Oct 25	Won	+1.83¢	+1.79¢
Paul Reed under 2.5 ast	Oct 25	Won	+4.82¢	+1.81¢
Paul Reed under 14.5 pts	Oct 25	Won	−0.97¢	+1.8¢
Paul Reed under 9.5 reb	Oct 25	Won	+0.97¢	+1.79¢
Daniss Jenkins over 4.5 ast	Oct 25	Won	+7.36¢	+1.82¢
Zach LaVine under 2.5 ast	Oct 25	Lost	+3.7¢	+1.83¢
Domantas Sabonis under 6.5 ast	Oct 25	Won	+1.69¢	+1.83¢
Ty Jerome under 6.5 ast	Oct 25	Won	+1.98¢	+1.83¢
Cedric Coward under 2.5 ast	Oct 25	Won	+2.09¢	+1.83¢

Older tests

These charts are the tests from before the live record. They are not added to the units at the top of this page. The method page has the same tests as tables, including the book split and the range on the NHL total.

NBA unseen test

Unseen games, 16 Dec 2025 to 24 Jan 2026 Cumulative units in that test, by day.

Test units

Days in the unseen test

The unseen test ends at +45.79 units. Not the live record.

A reshuffle of those same unseen bets. Not the path that happened, and not the live record. 99% of the paths finished up. The middle path ended at +74.9 units. The low end was +23.1 units. The middle drawdown was +18.5 units.

That test, by month

Unseen NBA test by month. Not the live record.
Month	Bets	Units	ROI
Dec 2025	256	+8.8u	+3.4%
Jan 2026	361	+37.0u	+10.3%

That test, by stat

Unseen NBA test by stat. Not the live record.
Stat	Bets	Units	ROI
Points	86	+18.6u	+21.6%
Rebounds	192	+31.8u	+16.6%
Assists	339	−4.6u	−1.4%

NHL test, by season

Units in the older NHL test. The published deepest drop in that test is -40.1 units. Not the live record.

Older NHL test by season. Not the live record.
Season	Units	ROI
2022-23	+40.1u	+5.5%
2023-24	+10.3u	+1.6%
2024-25	+17.6u	+2.7%
2025-26	+60.3u	+10.8%

Calibration

Model probability buckets against how often those picks won. Each dot is a bucket, not one pick. A bucket under 30 picks is a short sample. The hit rate there moves a lot on one or two results. This table is separate from the live record above.

The calibration list in this publish is empty, so nothing is plotted. I don't estimate the buckets from the posted prices.

Hit rate

The list in this publish is empty.

Bucket probability

Model
Hit rate equals the bucket
Short sample, under 30

For the stats nerds

Same graded picks as the charts above. Wilson intervals, bootstrap intervals, a beta posterior, and a runs test. Resamples use a fixed seed and 2,000 draws, so the same record draws the same picture. This is not a larger sample.

p-values on a split are not adjusted for how many splits are on this page. A split that looks sharp can be one of many. The break-even in every test is the posted American price, not a model probability.

Hit rate, with a Wilson interval

The hit rate is 60.5%. A 95% Wilson interval runs from 53.4% to 67.2%, and the whole interval sits above the 51.5% average break-even of the posted prices. That is the 95% comparison on this sample.

The bar is the 95% Wilson interval. The dot is the hit rate. The dashed line is the average break-even of the posted prices. A wide bar is a small sample. Sport, market, tier, price, side, and venue are the splits here. Smaller cuts are on the funnel below.

Dashed line: average break-even of the posted prices.

Overall60.5%

Sport · NBA59.9%

Sport · NHL · short75.0%

Market · Assists64.9%

Market · Moneyline · short75.0%

Market · Points57.3%

Market · Rebounds54.5%

Tier · Best bet · short75.0%

Tier · Bet · short75.0%

Tier · Pick59.9%

Price · −150 or shorter · short66.7%

Price · −149 to −11062.2%

Price · −109 to +11058.6%

Price · +111 to +15056.7%

Price · +151 or longer · short100.0%

Side · Over · short50.0%

Side · Under60.8%

Venue · Away63.9%

Venue · Home57.0%

Hit rate and 95% Wilson interval. Overall, then sport, market, tier, price, side, and venue.
Split	Decided	Hit rate	95% interval
Overall	190	60.5%	53.4% to 67.2%
Sport · NBA	182	59.9%	52.6% to 66.7%
Sport · NHLShort sample	8	75.0%	40.9% to 92.9%
Market · Assists	74	64.9%	53.5% to 74.8%
Market · MoneylineShort sample	8	75.0%	40.9% to 92.9%
Market · Points	75	57.3%	46.1% to 67.9%
Market · Rebounds	33	54.5%	38.0% to 70.2%
Tier · Best betShort sample	4	75.0%	30.1% to 95.4%
Tier · BetShort sample	4	75.0%	30.1% to 95.4%
Tier · Pick	182	59.9%	52.6% to 66.7%
Price · −150 or shorterShort sample	6	66.7%	30.0% to 90.3%
Price · −149 to −110	82	62.2%	51.4% to 71.9%
Price · −109 to +110	70	58.6%	46.9% to 69.4%
Price · +111 to +150	30	56.7%	39.2% to 72.6%
Price · +151 or longerShort sample	2	100.0%	34.2% to 100.0%
Side · OverShort sample	16	50.0%	28.0% to 72.0%
Side · Under	166	60.8%	53.3% to 67.9%
Venue · Away	97	63.9%	54.0% to 72.8%
Venue · Home	93	57.0%	46.8% to 66.6%

Units, with a bootstrap interval

A 95% bootstrap interval runs from +8.75u to +66.97u, around +37.63u. The interval describes this record. It is not a forecast.

Each draw resamples the graded picks with replacement, 2,000 times, and keeps the middle 95 percent of those draws. The dot is the units on the book, not the center of the draws. The dashed line is zero.

Dashed line: zero units.

Overall+37.63u

Sport · NBA+30.17u

Sport · NHL · short+7.46u

Market · Assists+21.53u

Market · Moneyline · short+7.46u

Market · Points+6.84u

Market · Rebounds+1.80u

Tier · Best bet · short+6.07u

Tier · Bet · short+1.39u

Tier · Pick+30.17u

Price · −150 or shorter · short+0.55u

Price · −149 to −110+10.04u

Price · −109 to +110+12.59u

Price · +111 to +150+9.40u

Price · +151 or longer · short+5.05u

Side · Over · short+0.62u

Side · Under+29.54u

Venue · Away+25.44u

Venue · Home+12.19u

Units and 95% bootstrap interval.
Split	Graded	Units	95% interval
Overall	190	+37.63u	+8.75u to +66.97u
Sport · NBA	182	+30.17u	+4.68u to +55.50u
Sport · NHLShort sample	8	+7.46u	−2.07u to +16.70u
Market · Assists	74	+21.53u	+5.08u to +38.20u
Market · MoneylineShort sample	8	+7.46u	−2.58u to +16.28u
Market · Points	75	+6.84u	−8.80u to +23.58u
Market · Rebounds	33	+1.80u	−9.55u to +12.13u
Tier · Best betShort sample	4	+6.07u	−3.30u to +12.40u
Tier · BetShort sample	4	+1.39u	−2.18u to +3.35u
Tier · Pick	182	+30.17u	+3.95u to +55.54u
Price · −150 or shorterShort sample	6	+0.55u	−2.75u to +3.86u
Price · −149 to −110	82	+10.04u	−7.55u to +26.47u
Price · −109 to +110	70	+12.59u	−3.51u to +29.25u
Price · +111 to +150	30	+9.40u	−3.81u to +22.34u
Price · +151 or longerShort sample	2	+5.05u	+3.10u to +7.00u
Side · OverShort sample	16	+0.62u	−7.65u to +9.24u
Side · Under	166	+29.54u	+6.84u to +53.75u
Venue · Away	97	+25.44u	+5.16u to +43.77u
Venue · Home	93	+12.19u	−7.02u to +32.09u

ROI, with a bootstrap interval

A 95% bootstrap interval runs from +4.5% to +34.4%, around +19.4%. The interval describes this record. It is not a forecast.

Same draws as the units interval. ROI is units won divided by units staked inside each draw. A split with a few picks has a wide interval, which is the point of drawing it.

Dashed line: zero ROI.

Overall+19.4%

Sport · NBA+16.6%

Sport · NHL · short+62.2%

Market · Assists+29.1%

Market · Moneyline · short+62.2%

Market · Points+9.1%

Market · Rebounds+5.4%

Tier · Best bet · short+75.9%

Tier · Bet · short+34.9%

Tier · Pick+16.6%

Price · −150 or shorter · short+9.2%

Price · −149 to −110+12.1%

Price · −109 to +110+17.7%

Price · +111 to +150+30.3%

Price · +151 or longer · short+168.3%

Side · Over · short+3.9%

Side · Under+17.8%

Venue · Away+25.7%

Venue · Home+12.8%

ROI and 95% bootstrap interval.
Split	Graded	ROI	95% interval
Overall	190	+19.4%	+4.5% to +34.4%
Sport · NBA	182	+16.6%	+2.6% to +30.5%
Sport · NHLShort sample	8	+62.2%	−19.1% to +126.1%
Market · Assists	74	+29.1%	+6.9% to +51.6%
Market · MoneylineShort sample	8	+62.2%	−21.0% to +123.9%
Market · Points	75	+9.1%	−11.7% to +31.4%
Market · Rebounds	33	+5.4%	−29.0% to +36.7%
Tier · Best betShort sample	4	+75.9%	−41.3% to +155.0%
Tier · BetShort sample	4	+34.9%	−54.5% to +83.8%
Tier · Pick	182	+16.6%	+2.2% to +30.5%
Price · −150 or shorterShort sample	6	+9.2%	−45.8% to +64.3%
Price · −149 to −110	82	+12.1%	−9.1% to +32.0%
Price · −109 to +110	70	+17.7%	−4.9% to +40.6%
Price · +111 to +150	30	+30.3%	−12.4% to +70.0%
Price · +151 or longerShort sample	2	+168.3%	+155.0% to +175.0%
Side · OverShort sample	16	+3.9%	−47.8% to +57.7%
Side · Under	166	+17.8%	+4.1% to +32.4%
Venue · Away	97	+25.7%	+5.3% to +44.4%
Venue · Home	93	+12.8%	−7.5% to +33.0%

Test against the posted price

115 wins against 97.9 expected from the posted prices. The z-score is +2.50. A two-sided p-value of 0.01 is uncommon if the prices were the true win rates, and one run can produce it. This sample has more wins than those prices implied.

The score treats each posted price as the win rate for that pick and adds the variances. Pushes are left out. The dashed lines are plus and minus 1.96, the usual 95% marks. Splits under 30 decided picks are left off this plot and stay on the funnel. These p-values are not adjusted for the number of splits.

Overall+2.50

Sport · NBA+2.27

Market · Assists+2.50

Market · Points+0.87

Market · Rebounds+0.29

Tier · Pick+2.27

Price · −149 to −110+1.36

Price · −109 to +110+1.41

Price · +111 to +150+1.31

Side · Under+2.33

Venue · Away+2.47

Venue · Home+1.05

Book · BetMGM+1.17

Book · BetRivers+1.50

Book · DraftKings+1.01

Book · FanDuel+0.82

Day · Friday+0.39

Day · Sunday+2.74

Day · Wednesday+1.32

Start · 7 PM ET+2.23

Wins against the total implied by the posted prices. Overall, and splits with at least 30 decided picks.
Split	Decided	Wins	Expected	z	p
Overall	190	115	97.9	+2.50	0.01
Sport · NBA	182	109	93.7	+2.27	0.02
Market · Assists	74	48	37.3	+2.50	0.01
Market · Points	75	43	39.3	+0.87	0.39
Market · Rebounds	33	18	17.2	+0.29	0.77
Tier · Pick	182	109	93.7	+2.27	0.02
Price · −149 to −110	82	51	44.9	+1.36	0.18
Price · −109 to +110	70	41	35.1	+1.41	0.16
Price · +111 to +150	30	17	13.4	+1.31	0.19
Side · Under	166	101	86.0	+2.33	0.02
Venue · Away	97	62	49.9	+2.47	0.01
Venue · Home	93	53	48.0	+1.05	0.29
Book · BetMGM	43	26	22.2	+1.17	0.24
Book · BetRivers	44	28	23.1	+1.50	0.13
Book · DraftKings	42	25	21.7	+1.01	0.31
Book · FanDuel	37	21	18.5	+0.82	0.41
Day · Friday	40	22	20.8	+0.39	0.70
Day · Sunday	32	24	16.3	+2.74	0.006
Day · Wednesday	60	36	30.9	+1.32	0.19
Start · 7 PM ET	78	50	40.2	+2.23	0.03

Wins against the price band

115 wins, against 97.9 expected if every posted price were the true win rate. That is more wins than the prices implied. Actual wins sit outside two standard deviations of that expectation. One sample can land there. The band is the variation in the win total when the prices are the true rates. Sitting inside it does not separate luck from a small edge.

Expected wins are the posted prices added up. The bands are one and two standard deviations of that sum. This is the same comparison as the test above, drawn as a count of wins rather than a z-score.

A beta posterior for the hit rate

The chance this posterior puts on a hit rate above the average posted price is 99%. A Bayesian bootstrap puts 100% of its weight on a positive ROI. Its 95% interval for ROI runs from +5.5% to +34.3%. That probability answers a softer question than whether a 95% interval clears the price or zero.

The curve starts from a nearly flat prior and updates it with the wins and losses. The dashed line is the average posted price. The faint line is the posterior mean. The ROI figure is a separate Bayesian bootstrap of the graded units, not a read of that curve. Neither one is a model probability.

Density

Hit rate

Plausible unit paths, reshuffled

Each path plays 190 results drawn from this graded record, in a new mix. It repeats prices and results already on the book. It is not the schedule ahead. About 0.05% of the 2,000 paths fell 20 units under the start. None of them lost 100 units. That would be the whole bankroll if 1 unit is 1% of it. About 0.4% finished down. A reshuffle of a record that is already ahead will usually stay ahead.

The deeper bronze band is the middle half of 2,000 paths. The lighter band runs from the 5th to the 95th percentile. Paths are drawn from the graded results only. Open picks are not in the mix. None of this uses a model probability.

Units

Picks ahead, reshuffled from this record

Closing line, mean and correlation

The mean closing-line value is +1.83¢ across 183 graded picks with a cents figure. A 95% t interval runs from +1.56¢ to +2.1¢. A two-sided test of a zero mean has a p-value under 0.001. The interval sits above zero, so the average in this sample is not one lucky pick. The correlation between cents and winning is −0.02, with a p-value of 0.83. Beating the close in this sample does not line up with which picks won. A positive close is not, by itself, a prediction of which pick won.

The interval is a t interval for the mean of the cents figures on graded picks. It does not fill a missing cents figure from the points value or from the price. Correlation is Pearson, on decided picks for the win comparison.

How many more picks the comparison needs

The 95% Wilson lower bound is already above the 51.5% average posted price, at a 60.5% hit rate on 190 decided picks. The rate can still move.

The sketch holds the current hit rate and the current average price still, and asks when the 95% Wilson lower bound would clear that price. It is not a sequential test, and it is not a sample size for a future slate.

Streaks against a shuffle

Wins and losses in time order, with pushes left out. There were 93 runs against 91.8 expected from a shuffle. The runs z-score is +0.18 and the two-sided p-value is 0.85. The lag-1 autocorrelation sits inside the usual random band, so the streaks look like a shuffle.

A run is a streak of the same result. Pushes are left out, because a push is not a win or a loss. The band is the usual 95% range for a lag-1 autocorrelation when the order is random.

Split ROI against sample size

Each dot is one split's ROI against how many graded picks it has. The dashed curves are 95% control limits from the spread of returns in the whole record. A small split gets a wide limit, so a loud ROI there is usually noise. 2 of 109 splits sit outside the limit nearest their sample size. A hollow dot is outside that limit. That is a loud sample, not a separate result. The limits assume every split is a random draw from the same return distribution.

Day, start time, book, team, and opponent sit on this plot with the larger splits. A team with a handful of picks can print a wild ROI. The limits get wider as the sample gets smaller so that print does not read as a finding. Hollow dots are outside the limit nearest their count.

ROI

Graded picks in the split

2 splits sit outside the limits

Splits whose ROI is outside the control limit nearest their sample size.
Split	Graded	ROI
Price · +151 or longerShort sample	2	+168.3%
Opponent · 76ersShort sample	7	+96.9%

Play responsibly

Picks are information, not financial or betting advice. Past results, including tests, don't guarantee future results. Bet only what you can afford to lose, and only where it's legal for you: 18+, 19+ in most of Canada, 21+ in most US states.

If betting stops being fun, help is free and confidential: 1-800-GAMBLER in the US, ConnexOntario 1-866-531-2600, or your provincial helpline.